In 1999, the industry is just as price competitive, but overall sales revenues are forecasted to increase 7.7%, boosted by a 16.1% increase in unit shipments. The industry shipped 144.9 million hard disk drives in 1998, and the projection for 1999 is 168.3 million, with the forecast for 2002 set at 252.9 million drives. By 2002, the industry is expected to have total sales revenues of $50.3 billion, as shipments of hard disk drives follow the upward path of various types of computer and consumer markets, and as average disk capacities continue to escalate.
Here are other highlights from the 1999 DISK/TREND Report on rigid disk drives:
In addition to individual revenue and unit shipment projections for rigid disk drives in nine product groups, the DISK/TREND Report, now in its 23rd year, provides statistics on disk drive price per megabyte, competitive market shares of manufacturers, and a review of data storage technologies. The report also contains basic product specifications on 389 disk drive models and profiles on the 18 existing manufacturers of rigid disk drives, plus start-up firms and recent industry dropouts.
- DISK/TREND shipment data is segmented by computer platform, with breakdowns for "desktop" drives used with personal computers, "mobile" drives for notebook computers, and "server" drives typically used with mainframe or network file servers, plus high performance workstations. Currently, desktop drives dominate shipments, with 74.9% of the 1999 estimated worldwide total, followed by server drives at 12.7%, and mobile drives with 12.3%.
- Several major computer manufacturers produce "Captive" disk drives -- the drives they sell with their own computer systems. Both captive drive manufacturers and independent drive producers also compete in the "noncaptive" market, selling disk drives through distribution and "OEM" drives to other system manufacturers. DISK/TREND's data shows that the noncaptive sales channel is a key to the industry's future growth, expanding from 76.5% of 1998 sales revenues to 83.7% in 2002.
- There's no stopping the upward movement in average disk drive capacities. Drives in the 3 to 5 gigabyte range held the lead in 1998 shipments, but the market's appetite for more capacity goes up every year. In 1999, leadership has already moved up to the 5-10 gigabyte group, with 40-80 gigabyte drives forecasted to be 2002's leading product group.
- The overall leader in sales revenue was again IBM, with 27.1% of the worldwide total, including a combination of captive and noncaptive sales. Second and third places, involving only noncaptive drives, went to Seagate Technology, with 19.8%, and Quantum, with 12.4%. Both companies lost market share in 1998, in the face of severe competition.
- Only those disk drive producers which are well suited to an environment of very short product life cycles and intense competition manage to survive. 59 companies manufactured rigid disk drives at the beginning of the 1990's, but in 1999 only 18 active or announced manufacturers remain, a net reduction of two from the previous year.
- The race to deliver ever higher capacities and very competitive prices has been tough on disk drive manufacturers' profits, but it's been a good deal for the industry's customers. In 1988, the average price per megabyte for all hard disk drives was $11.54. In 1998, the average price had fallen to 4.3 cents, and the estimate for 1999 is 2.3 cents. By 2002, the overall average price per megabyte for all disk drives is projected to be 0.3 cents.
The new study on the worldwide rigid disk drive industry was released as part of the 1999 DISK/TREND Report, a detailed annual business review of the worldwide disk drive industry. A separate report on optical and removable disk drives will be released in July, and a study on disk drive arrays will be published in October.
The 1999 DISK/TREND Report on rigid disk drives is priced at $2,960.
Subscriptions to the complete 1999 DISK/TREND
Report, including the individual reports on
rigid disk drives, optical and removable disk drives, and disk drive arrays are available
individually or at the discounted price of $6,240 for the complete set by
contacting Jim Porter, 2030 West Middlefield Road #1, Mountain View, CA 94043, or through
the web site, www.disktrend.com.
RIGID DISK DRIVE UNIT SHIPMENTS
SUMMARY BY DISK DIAMETER
-------------------Forecast------------------
Worldwide 1998
Unit shipments (000) Shipments 1999 2000 2001 2002
-------------------- --------- ------ ------ ------ ------
5.25 INCH 4,073.9 2,175.0 1,095.0 400.0 --
3.5 INCH 123,047.1 145,188.8 168,385.0 193,330.0 220,330.0
2.5 INCH 17,729.9 20,817.0 24,090.0 27,740.0 31,850.0
1.8 INCH OR LESS 115.9 173.0 250.0 475.0 750.0
_________ _________ _________ _________ _________
TOTAL, ALL GROUPS 144,966.8 168,353.8 193,820.0 221,945.0 252,930.0
+11.1% +16.1% +15.1% +14.5% +14.0%
Notes: 3.5" totals include 3" and 2.5" server platform drives.
2.5" totals include 3" mobile platform drives.
Source: 1999 DISK/TREND Report
RIGID DISK DRIVE SALES REVENUES
SUMMARY BY DRIVE CAPACITY
Sales revenues ------------------Forecast-----------------
in millions of 1998
U.S. Dollars Revenues 1999 2000 2001 2002
-------------- -------- ------ ------ ------ ------
Disk cartridge drives 271.1 180.6 187.9 210.5 242.5
FIXED DISK DRIVES
Less than 2 Gigabytes 372.1 84.7 58.1 80.2 96.7
2 - 3 Gigabytes 3,906.5 1,237.2 338.6 106.2 --
3 - 5 Gigabytes 12,339.6 6,116.3 1,568.5 470.0 148.6
5 - 10 Gigabytes 9,229.5 12,149.4 7,691.6 2,253.4 737.5
10 - 20 Gigabytes 3,736.5 10,604.7 14,171.7 8,771.1 2,926.3
20 - 40 Gigabytes 62.4 1,757.7 10,053.5 15,968.7 10,247.6
40 - 80 Gigabytes 159.1 269.6 2,044.8 11,681.1 18,577.2
More than 80 Gigabytes -- -- 170.2 3,419.0 17,341.9
________ ________ ________ ________ ________
TOTAL REVENUES 30,076.8 32,400.2 36,284.9 42,960.2 50,318.3
Source: 1999 DISK/TREND Report
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